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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."